Does the bitcoin exchange rate follow the hashrate? – We understand the theory

Hashrate the most capitalized cryptocurrency – bitcoin (BTC) – updated the absolute maximum (ATH). According to the founder of Heisenberg Capital, a well-known trader Max Kaiser, changes can be a signal to the exit of the coin’s rate in growth. With this assumption, he shared it with the readers of his microblog in the summer of 2019. The editors of BeInCrypto decided to test the viability of Max Kaiser’s theory.

In order to understand how the bitcoin exchange rate is correlated with the hashrate, it was necessary to analyze the behavior of the coin at those moments when the indicator updated the historical maximum. The comparison of the BTC chart with the changes in the cryptocurrency hashrate over three years is as follows:

The blue line is the hashrate of bitcoin. Below is a chart of the cryptocurrency exchange rate. Charts from September 16, 2017 to September 14, 2020. Data: blockchain.com, TradingView

The chart shows 33 ATH hashrate of bitcoin. They are marked with circles. Green – exit to growth, blue-lateral movement, red-fall. Of these:

  • In 19 episodes, the cryptocurrency exchange rate went up.
  • In 10 cases, bitcoin lost in price.
  • In 4 episodes, the coin’s rate continued to move sideways.

It turns out that within three years, in 57% of cases, bitcoin went up against the background of updating the absolute maximum hashrate. In 30% of the ATH of the indicator fell on the period of decline in the value of the cryptocurrency. On the sidewalls, during the update of the record hashrate figures, it was about 12%.

Let’s take a closer look at 2020. By reducing the time frame, you can compare the time frame more accurately. For 9 months of 2020, the bitcoin hashrate has updated the maximum value 8 times. Of these:

  • In 5 cases, the cryptocurrency exchange rate went up.
  • In 3 episodes, against the background of the ATH hashrate, bitcoin lost in price.

It turns out that the coin during 2020 in 62% of cases went up during the periods of updating the maximum hashrate value. The fall accounted for about 37%.

Charts of the bitcoin hashrate and the cryptocurrency exchange rate for the year. Data: blockchain.com, TradingView

See also: The most profitable and unprofitable cryptocurrencies of September

It turned out that in most cases, the ATH hashrate of bitcoin is followed by the output of the cryptocurrency in growth. At the same time, frequent episodes of the fall of the coin’s exchange rate, against the background of the indicator update, do not allow us to speak about the high accuracy of the theory.

Recall that most of the bitcoin hashrate focused in China. At the same time, Russia is in second place. Researchers considerthat the coin can displace the PRC in the BTC mining market.

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