Bitcoin accelerated its decline after a pullback from the Fibonacci level

On September 20, the bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate failed to overcome the important Fibonacci level and fell sharply the next day. If the quotes manage to stay above the $10,100 mark, the chances of resuming the bullish move will remain.

Pullback from the important Fibonacci level

On September 19, the first cryptocurrency reached a high of $11,183, which passes near the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level relative to the previous bullish move. The price rolled back from this mark and formed a bearish absorption candle on September 22.

The fact that the BTC rate has not yet reached the downward resistance line projected from the last two declining highs suggests that the coin is in correction mode after the recent fall.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The MACD began to fall, and the RSI rose above the 50 mark. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator continues to prepare for a bullish intersection.

BTC chart from TradingView

The 6-hour charts show that the drop was preceded by significant bearish divergence signals from the RSI. In addition, the MACD has lost momentum and has already entered negative territory.

BTC chart from TradingView

Bitcoin met support at 0.618% of the Fibonacci retracement relative to the bullish move and rebounded. The levels of 0.618-0.786% of the correction are in the area of $10,116-$10,344 should definitely act as support. Otherwise, the price risks forming a falling low relative to the levels of September 4.

At the same time, there are no clear reversal signals on the charts, except for the growing MACD. A break of the short-term downward resistance line will confirm the prospects for the growth of quotations. On the other hand, a loss of support could send BTC into the $9,700 region.

BTC chart from TradingView

Wave analysis

The wave analysis shows that the price has completed an impulsive move and is now being corrected inside the A-B-C pattern (red on the chart below).

The shape of the A-B-C pattern looks unconventional, but the ratio of the A:C waves is 1:2.61, which means that the figure is correct. However, to complete the wave With bitcoin, it should soon reach a minimum.

BTC chart from TradingView

On the 15-minute chart, there is another bearish wave (blue), which will end with a larger wave C. In this scenario, the price will go to the area of 0.618-0.786% of the Fibonacci support, which was mentioned above.

Then bitcoin should move to growth.

BTC chart from TradingView

Alternative wave analysis

There is an alternative analysis that has gained significance after yesterday’s fall. The shape and scope of wave 4 (orange on the chart) make us doubt the relevance of this analysis, but in general, it fits into the dynamics so far.

Alternative analysis suggests that the short-term pattern (blue) will remain unchanged, and the fifth wave will lead to the formation of a declining minimum relative to the level of September 4.

BTC chart from TradingView

So, the most likely scenario for bitcoin is a rebound in the region of $10,115-$10,355, followed by growth.

You can read the previous analysis of bitcoin here.


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